Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:27:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A7 0xa785…0a06 other 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%7W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$2
politics 27% −$2
sports 6% +$7
economics 4% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +13.5% +2.7% 31% 15% -7.9%
≤90d 71 -0.4% -9.9% 10% 7% -9.5%
all 71 -0.4% -9.9% 10% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 7% -9.5%
10% -18.5% 7% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 6% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×9.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses7 / 64
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage80d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $74 $74 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 29 $24 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $201 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $112 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 22 $123 $0 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $9 +$8 +93%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $10 +$9 +83%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $107 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 14 $92 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $99 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $98 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $93 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $193 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $96 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $96 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $96 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $103 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $103 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $192 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $189 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $104 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $197 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $283 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $105 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $103 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $200 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 13 $101 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $199 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $97 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $96 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $95 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $96 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 10 $103 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 09 $102 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $106 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $74 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 3d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 3d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 3d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 20d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 20d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 21d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 21d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $26 22d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 22d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 22d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $13 23d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $13 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $51 26d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $23 26d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $23 26d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $12 27d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 27d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 54¢ $10 27d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 51¢ $9 28d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $15 28d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 28d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 29d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 29d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $96 33d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $97 33d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $95 34d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $95 34d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $92 34d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $92 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.14 · official $74.14 (match) · 182 history records