Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa784…aac3 crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$834 (+4%) realized +$836 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate65%33W / 18L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$332per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$161
7 days+$263
14 days+$546
30 days+$923
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$1,227
other 20% −$2,068
sports 11% −$156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +14.7% +3.8% 60% 25% -6.6%
≤30d 32 +22.5% +10.8% 75% 28% -3.7%
≤90d 51 +1.2% -8.4% 65% 29% -14.6%
all 51 +1.2% -8.4% 65% 29% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 29% -14.6%
10% -17.2% 22% -22.8%
15% -25.2% 12% -30.2%
20% -32.5% 6% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$609) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$140 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$836
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses33 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 58
History coverage64d
Avg bet$332
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $851 +$17 +2%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$19 -91%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $609 +$165 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $106 −$45 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $673 +$144 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $444 +$157 +35%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $830 −$296 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $751 +$58 +8%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $743 +$62 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $714 +$25 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $207 −$41 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $720 +$19 +3%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$14 +734%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 9? Jun 11 $7 +$2 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $722 +$20 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $672 +$46 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $635 +$23 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $620 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $596 +$30 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $557 +$34 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $551 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 +$2 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $456 +$93 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $423 +$38 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $377 +$50 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $465 +$15 +3%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $1,345 +$33 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $107 +$328 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 14 $102 +$27 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 05 $272 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 01 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 01 $448 −$448 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $430 −$430 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 25 $19 +$7 +38%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 25 $67 −$31 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 24 $360 −$356 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $358 +$53 +15%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Apr 18 $19 +$8 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 17 $327 −$326 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $299 −$296 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 15 $119 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 15 $62 +$18 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 15 $90 +$9 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $851 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $609 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 16¢ $44 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 19¢ $18 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 26¢ $4 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 26¢ $103 16h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 17h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 17h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 17h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 17h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $102 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $715 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $673 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $601 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $444 32h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 60¢ $534 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $65 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $765 39h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 70¢ $452 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 70¢ $86 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 70¢ $100 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 70¢ $171 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 65¢ $751 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 11¢ $21 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 11¢ $12 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 87¢ $805 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 79¢ $743 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.44 · official $58.44 (match) · 431 history records