Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:42:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa782…6107 crypto 497 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$331 (-1%) realized −$331 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%487W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$73
14 days+$87
30 days−$369
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$368
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 +1.3% -8.3% 99% 2% -8.4%
≤30d 497 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 2% -10.9%
≤90d 497 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 2% -10.9%
all 497 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 2% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -10.9%
10% -17.9% 0% -19.4%
15% -25.8% 0% -27.2%
20% -33.1% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$94 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$331
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses487 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)497 / 497
History coverage30d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 497 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $34 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $34 +$3 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $34 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $34 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $34 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $34 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $34 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $34 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.46 · official $0.00 (match) · 984 history records