Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:54:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa782…162f crypto 521 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,264 (-5%) realized −$1,309 · open −$955
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%157W / 363L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,690now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$796
world 25% −$1,727
other 13% +$168
finance 9% −$106
sports 2% −$120
politics 1% −$282
economics 0% −$3
tech 0% −$20
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -6.8% -15.7% 50% 50% -9.1%
≤30d 4 -6.8% -15.7% 50% 50% -9.1%
≤90d 331 -23.0% -30.4% 29% 24% -21.8%
all 520 -6.5% -15.4% 30% 26% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 26% -13.8%
10% -23.5% 25% -22.0%
15% -30.9% 23% -29.6%
20% -37.7% 21% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$33 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$1,690
Realized−$1,309
Unrealized−$955
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses157 / 363
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)520 / 521
History coverage108d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 520 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 46¢ 30¢ $2,644 $1,690 −$955 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 180 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$4 +23%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $184 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 09 $22 −$11 -49%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 09 $22 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 09 $40 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 09 $53 −$53 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 09 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 09 $60 −$60 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 09 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 21¢ $58 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 44¢ $566 68d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 68d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 43¢ $14 68d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 23¢ $40 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $9 68d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? SELL No 35¢ $115 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $3 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $10 68d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? SELL Yes 51¢ $154 68d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 50¢ $3 68d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 50¢ $141 68d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 50¢ $7 68d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $13 68d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 49¢ $12 68d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $140 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,689.78 · official $1,689.78 (match) · 1496 history records