Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:50:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A7 0xa780…b094 other 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+0%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$19
politics 34% −$17
sports 10% +$82
world 4% −$2
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 90 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 137 +3.4% -6.5% 12% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 6% -9.4%
10% -15.4% 3% -18.1%
15% -23.6% 2% -26.0%
20% -31.1% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$0 · ×13.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)137 / 139
History coverage139d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $35 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $270 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $272 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $259 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $264 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $215 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $232 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $261 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $200 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $210 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $219 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $241 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $253 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $237 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $228 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $273 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $236 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $208 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $202 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $277 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $279 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $240 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $231 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $257 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $199 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $250 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 29 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $750 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $475 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $491 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $411 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 24 $209 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $200 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $453 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $239 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $36 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 3d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 5d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 5d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 8d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 12d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 13d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 26d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 27d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $272 27d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $272 27d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $254 30d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $254 30d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $259 31d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $259 32d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $276 32d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $276 33d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $264 33d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $264 33d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 34d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $215 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.07 · official $67.07 (match) · 431 history records