Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:15:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A7 0xa775…8e86 other 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$35 (-0%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate4%5W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$14
politics 41% −$16
sports 5% −$6
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 106 -2.9% -12.1% 3% 3% -9.6%
all 119 -4.7% -13.8% 4% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 3% -9.6%
10% -22.0% 2% -18.3%
15% -29.5% 2% -26.2%
20% -36.5% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×12.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses5 / 114
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage116d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $269 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $409 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $206 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $261 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $207 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $208 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 14 $187 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $211 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $230 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $190 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $374 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $181 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $225 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $221 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $178 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $260 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $187 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $209 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $241 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $205 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $464 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $193 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $243 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $204 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $221 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Apr 30 $462 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 27 $245 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $182 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $414 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $484 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $187 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $228 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $214 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $412 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $246 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $233 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $200 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $452 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $253 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $242 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $214 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $272 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $231 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 10h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 7d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 9d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 10d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 21d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $206 28d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $206 28d
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $261 29d
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $261 29d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $250 30d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $250 30d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $207 31d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $207 31d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $239 31d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $239 31d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $208 31d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $208 35d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $192 35d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $192 36d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $187 38d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $187 38d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $211 38d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $211 38d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $244 38d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $244 39d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $230 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.99 · official $35.99 (match) · 351 history records