Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:21:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A7 0xa772…05ef crypto 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 427d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,003 (-12%) realized −$2,989 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate48%66W / 72L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$586now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days+$112
14 days+$238
30 days−$1,004
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$745
politics 14% −$1,998
weather 4% −$369
other 4% −$13
sports 1% −$42
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +25.9% +13.9% 100% 50% +7.0%
≤30d 7 -26.6% -33.6% 57% 43% -39.4%
≤90d 62 -15.0% -23.1% 35% 32% -17.7%
all 138 -1.5% -10.9% 48% 32% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 32% -20.8%
10% -19.4% 20% -28.4%
15% -27.2% 14% -35.3%
20% -34.3% 12% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$85 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

427d coverage
Net worth$586
Realized−$2,989
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses66 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage427d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 88¢ 86¢ $600 $586 −$14 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $453 +$46 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $159 +$66 +42%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $484 +$126 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $468 −$460 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $531 −$517 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31? May 28 $445 −$403 -91%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? May 23 $521 +$139 +27%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17? May 15 $438 +$187 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 13 $4 +$3 +92%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 13 $43 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 11 $2 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? May 09 $405 +$123 +30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3? May 04 $101 +$24 +23%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 03 $204 +$161 +79%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 20-26? Apr 26 $355 +$53 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 21 $459 +$65 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12? Apr 14 $108 +$186 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 13? Apr 12 $106 −$11 -11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 March 16-22? Apr 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 2-8? Apr 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 March 16-22? Apr 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Apr 12 $434 +$36 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Apr 12 $144 +$28 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 29? Apr 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 12? Apr 12 $216 −$97 -45%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 26-1? Apr 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 29? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 14? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 25? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 27? Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 25? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in March? Apr 12 $212 −$212 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 16? Apr 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 26? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 14? Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 5? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 23-29? Apr 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 12? Apr 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 3? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 April 6-12? Apr 07 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $201 +$306 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 3? Apr 03 $398 −$304 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 88¢ $599 44m
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 88¢ $6 44m
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? SELL No 100¢ $499 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? SELL No 98¢ $225 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 68¢ $22 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 68¢ $32 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 68¢ $32 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 67¢ $66 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY No 90¢ $181 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 66¢ $7 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY No 90¢ $135 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY No 90¢ $137 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL No 88¢ $610 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 67¢ $484 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? BUY No 75¢ $468 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 June 1-7? BUY No 62¢ $531 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31? SELL No 7¢ $41 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31? BUY No 69¢ $211 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31? BUY No 69¢ $70 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31? BUY No 69¢ $82 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31? BUY No 68¢ $80 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? SELL No 98¢ $368 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? SELL No 79¢ $292 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? BUY No 68¢ $521 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17? SELL No 94¢ $625 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 39d
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $43 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17? BUY No 64¢ $438 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $586.13 · official $586.13 (match) · 413 history records