Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A7 0xa770…c45c weather 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$171 (+0%) realized +$169 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate90%225W / 24L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$438per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$412now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$223
14 days+$240
30 days+$312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 78% +$186
other 14% +$219
sports 6% −$262
politics 1% +$4
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +1.4% -8.2% 97% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 134 +0.5% -9.0% 99% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 208 -6.8% -15.6% 92% 0% -10.6%
all 249 -1.4% -10.8% 90% 12% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 12% -9.4%
10% -19.3% 11% -18.1%
15% -27.1% 7% -26.0%
20% -34.3% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$598) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$81 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$412
Realized+$169
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses225 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)249 / 250
History coverage146d
Avg bet$438
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 98¢ 99¢ $410 $412 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Qatar? Jun 18 $96 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $92 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $66 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 1 Colombia? Jun 17 $209 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: England 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $421 +$3 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $89 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $973 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? Jun 16 $660 +$6 +1%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? Jun 16 $578 +$9 +2%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $316 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? Jun 16 $836 +$7 +1%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 3 Jordan? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? Jun 16 $327 +$3 +1%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $58 $0 +0%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 15 $173 +$3 +2%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1,699 +$25 +2%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1,645 +$25 +2%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $235 +$5 +2%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $66 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $453 +$6 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $304 +$5 +2%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2,327 +$27 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $65 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 $0 +2%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $376 +$24 +6%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $408 +$35 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $101 $0 +0%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $156 +$4 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 12 $87 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $383 +$21 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2,105 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,376 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 10? Jun 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1,349 +$3 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 9? Jun 10 $76 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 68°F or higher on June Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Jun 09 $598 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 09 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 09 $519 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $114 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $6 38m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $6 38m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $20 39m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $6 39m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $31 39m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $6 39m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $4 39m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $8 39m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $31 39m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $6 39m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $15 39m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $30 40m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $31 40m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $60 40m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $6 40m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $49 40m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $31 40m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $6 40m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $49 40m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $19 41m
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Qatar? SELL No 99¢ $97 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $178 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $178 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $178 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $178 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 98¢ $157 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 98¢ $944 1h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Qatar? BUY No 98¢ $92 1h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Qatar? BUY No 98¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $15 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $412.04 · official $412.04 (match) · 2045 history records