Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:11:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A7 0xa76f…fd62 sports 7 markets active 15d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$435 (-34%) realized −$435 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$455
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -23.1% -30.4% 29% 29% -42.0%
≤90d 7 -23.1% -30.4% 29% 29% -42.0%
all 7 -23.1% -30.4% 29% 29% -42.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 29% -42.0%
10% -37.1% 29% -47.5%
15% -43.2% 29% -52.6%
20% -48.7% 29% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$142 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$435
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $136 −$136 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $207 −$205 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $249 −$42 -17%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $63 +$84 +134%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $209 −$128 -61%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $208 +$172 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 61¢ $207 14d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL Cincinnati Reds 47¢ $207 14d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $249 14d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 42¢ $63 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 20¢ $56 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 19¢ $25 15d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $208 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 49¢ $209 15d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 49¢ $181 15d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 49¢ $20 15d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $100 15d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $36 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records