Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:33:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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A7 0xa76d…3e8e crypto 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,731 (-25%) realized −$3,741 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%56W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,215
7 days−$2,507
14 days−$2,531
30 days−$2,525
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$3,469
crypto 33% +$377
other 27% −$787
world 1% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +3.8% -6.1% 49% 44% -44.7%
≤30d 88 -2.7% -12.0% 50% 48% -33.2%
≤90d 114 -5.2% -14.2% 49% 47% -34.2%
all 114 -5.2% -14.2% 49% 47% -34.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 47% -34.2%
10% -22.4% 46% -40.5%
15% -29.9% 39% -46.3%
20% -36.8% 36% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$135 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$1,117
Realized−$3,741
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses56 / 58
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions12
Markets (closed)114 / 126
History coverage43d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $467 $426 −$41 (-9%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 64¢ 100¢ $167 $262 +$95 (+57%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $220 $206 −$14 (-6%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $159 $144 −$15 (-9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $9 −$4 (-33%)
Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $8 $5 −$4 (-46%)
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 23¢ 21¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 44¢ 34¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $82 −$81 -98%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $117 −$115 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $49 +$24 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $75 +$142 +188%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 16 $29 +$90 +315%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $112 +$202 +180%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $5 +$5 +89%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $256 −$36 -14%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,353 −$1,345 -99%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $648 −$642 -99%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $127 −$8 -7%
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $126 −$1 -1%
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $75 +$1 +2%
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $76 +$2 +2%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $25 $0 -1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$94 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $737 −$728 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $401 +$93 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $141 +$32 +23%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $60 −$59 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $290 +$69 +24%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $37 +$39 +106%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $352 +$104 +30%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$9 +46%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$15 +152%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $267 −$265 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $7 +$13 +183%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $252 +$264 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$5 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$5 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$5 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 70¢ $17 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $51 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $101 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $15 10h
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 10h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10h
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 11h
Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 11h
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $67 11h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 52¢ $117 12h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 12h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 12h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $38 12h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $43 12h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 12h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 12h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 15h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 17h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 20h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 20h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $43 20h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 20h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 20h
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 21¢ $225 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $102 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $10 23h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $49 23h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,116.77 · official $1,116.77 (match) · 479 history records