Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

A7 0xa76c…a1ba sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$77 (+0%) realized +$77 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%5W / 12L

Whale WR0%big bets

Drawdown85%max

Avg bet$2,992per market

Trades / day17.7pace

Fees−$17est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$123

7 days−$173

14 days−$278

30 days+$56

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-15.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-14.0%	-22.2%	29%	29%	-13.6%
≤30d	17	-7.0%	-15.8%	29%	29%	-9.4%
≤90d	17	-7.0%	-15.8%	29%	29%	-9.4%
all	17	-7.0%	-15.8%	29%	29%	-9.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover17.7 tr/day

realistic slip~14%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-15.8%	29%	-9.4%
10% ← realistic here	-23.9%	29%	-18.1%
15%	-31.2%	29%	-26.0%
20%	-38.0%	29%	-33.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 53% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,129) big bets weaker

Persistence

early -2% → late -12% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$128 vs −$49 · ×2.63 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.1 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$77

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses5 / 12

Whale WR (big bets)0%

Est. fees paid−$17

Open positions0

Markets (closed)17 / 17

History coverage18d

Avg bet$2,992

Trades / day17.7

Drawdown85%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 17 Trades

no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	Jun 24	$2,129	$0	-0%
Spread: Portugal (-5.5)	Jun 23	$1,080	−$1	-0%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$123	−$121	-99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$122	+$128	+105%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$124	−$122	-99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$156	−$154	-99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$102	+$98	+97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$83	−$82	-99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$82	+$77	+93%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	Jun 13	$51	−$50	-98%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10?	Jun 09	$8,093	−$1	-0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8?	Jun 08	$10,713	−$1	-0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Jun 07	$155	+$145	+93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Jun 07	$207	+$192	+93%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 7?	Jun 07	$12,650	−$1	-0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 7?	Jun 07	$14,949	−$1	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	SELL Canada	100¢	$200	1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	BUY Canada	100¢	$200	1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	SELL Canada	100¢	$200	1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	BUY Canada	100¢	$200	1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	SELL Canada	100¢	$200	1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	BUY Canada	100¢	$200	1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	SELL Canada	100¢	$200	1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	BUY Canada	100¢	$200	1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	SELL Canada	100¢	$200	1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	BUY Canada	100¢	$200	1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	SELL Canada	100¢	$200	1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	BUY Canada	100¢	$200	1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	SELL Canada	100¢	$200	1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	BUY Canada	100¢	$200	1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	SELL Canada	100¢	$200	1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	BUY Canada	100¢	$200	1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	SELL Canada	100¢	$200	1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	BUY Canada	100¢	$200	1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	SELL Canada	100¢	$200	1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	BUY Canada	100¢	$200	1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	SELL Canada	100¢	$130	1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5)	BUY Canada	100¢	$130	1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5)	SELL Uzbekistan	96¢	$120	20h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5)	BUY Uzbekistan	96¢	$120	21h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5)	SELL Uzbekistan	96¢	$120	21h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5)	BUY Uzbekistan	96¢	$120	21h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5)	SELL Uzbekistan	96¢	$120	21h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5)	BUY Uzbekistan	96¢	$120	21h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5)	SELL Uzbekistan	96¢	$120	21h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5)	BUY Uzbekistan	96¢	$120	21h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 320 history records