Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:54:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A7 0xa76b…c054 other 11 markets active 10h ago coverage 154d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$487 (+13%) realized +$392 · open +$95
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$351per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$2,603now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 154d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$154
politics 21% +$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.4% -7.3% 50% 50% -4.3%
≤30d 2 +2.4% -7.3% 50% 50% -4.3%
≤90d 2 +2.4% -7.3% 50% 50% -4.3%
all 3 +14.4% +3.5% 67% 67% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.5% 67% +8.1%
10% -6.4% 33% -2.3%
15% -15.4% 33% -11.7%
20% -23.7% 0% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
30.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$14 · ×9.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×18.99 per $1 lost it wins $18.99
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$2,603
Realized+$392
Unrealized+$95
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)3 / 11
History coverage154d
Avg bet$351
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 52¢ $830 $744 −$85 (-10%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 43¢ $460 $430 −$30 (-7%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 40¢ $417 $412 −$5 (-1%)
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 27¢ 36¢ $307 $397 +$90 (+29%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $246 $326 +$80 (+32%)
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 63¢ $122 $159 +$38 (+31%)
Will Son Heung-min score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 31¢ $116 $124 +$8 (+7%)
Will James Rodríguez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 26¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $541 +$59 +11%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $234 −$14 -6%
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municip Mar 15 $560 +$215 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 58¢ $229 10h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 58¢ $355 10h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $250 10h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $219 11h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $104 11h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $218 11h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $425 20h
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 30¢ $9 3d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 30¢ $0 3d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 30¢ $12 4d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 30¢ $1 4d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 30¢ $2 4d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 30¢ $4 4d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 30¢ $6 4d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 31¢ $16 4d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 31¢ $26 4d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 30¢ $25 4d
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $168 4d
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $84 4d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 28¢ $20 4d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 26¢ $11 5d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 26¢ $13 5d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 26¢ $1 6d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 26¢ $2 6d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 26¢ $5 6d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 26¢ $5 6d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 26¢ $7 6d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $50 6d
Will Son Heung-min score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $20 6d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 26¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,603.43 · official $2,603.43 (match) · 357 history records