Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:42:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa76b…8a50 other 565 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d only
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,050 (+18%) realized +$1,143 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate33%173W / 356L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day69.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$1,374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$649
7 days−$617
14 days−$425
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$93
politics 34% +$418
culture 11% +$31
tech 7% −$110
sports 5% +$68
world 4% +$140
crypto 2% +$201
economics 0% −$4
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 310 -49.5% -54.3% 22% 12% -30.9%
≤30d 490 -33.1% -39.5% 31% 16% -10.2%
≤90d 529 -19.0% -26.7% 33% 18% -7.4%
all 529 -19.0% -26.7% 33% 18% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.7% 18% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -33.7% 14% -16.2%
15% -40.1% 11% -24.3%
20% -46.0% 9% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$1,374
Realized+$1,143
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses173 / 356
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions189
Markets (closed)529 / 565
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day69.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 189 History 529 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 45¢ 62¢ $43 $59 +$16 (+38%)
Will Trump praise Susan Dell by June 30? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $53 $50 −$2 (-4%)
Will Trump designate Brazil's PCC or CV as a terrorists by December 31? Yes 92¢ 96¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+5%)
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 72¢ 60¢ $54 $45 −$9 (-16%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 33¢ 22¢ $59 $39 −$20 (-34%)
Will Ozuna perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 95¢ 97¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+1%)
Will Sam Smith perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 96¢ 98¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $22 $24 +$1 (+6%)
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? Yes 23¢ 46¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+106%)
Will Selena Gomez be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids? Yes 48¢ 75¢ $12 $19 +$7 (+55%)
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in June 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? No 95¢ 95¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Brie Larson as Captain Marvel? Yes 45¢ 66¢ $12 $18 +$6 (+47%)
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? No 96¢ 98¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 70¢ 68¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? No 89¢ 88¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 65¢ 95¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+45%)
Trump on $250 bill this year? No 92¢ 92¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 73¢ 74¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? No 74¢ 100¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+35%)
Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? Yes 76¢ 80¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
UFC Freedom 250: Weather Delay? No 7¢ 26¢ $4 $13 +$10 (+274%)
Will Ed Sheeran perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 94¢ 99¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+5%)
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30? No 88¢ 92¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 287 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Fake news" during Memphis Roundtable? Jun 15 $2 −$3 -200%
Will Trump say "Plastic Egg" this week? (April 5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" or "Cheater" during Jun 15 $0 $0 -200%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April 2 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Ethanol" this week? (March 29) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Contestant" during his next video? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "China" during dinner with Dutch royals? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mark Rutte say "NATO" 3+ times during his speech on April 9? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Powell say "China" during March press conference? Jun 15 $0 $0 -133%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during the FII PRIORITY Summit? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Cabinet meeting on March 26? Jun 15 $14 −$5 -34%
Will Trump say "Scam" or "Fraud" 3+ times during Memphis Roundtable? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Gold" during trophy presentation? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during dinner with Dutch royals? Jun 15 $0 −$1 -282%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 11? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Somali" or "Somalia" or "Somalian" during healthcare e Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Coach" 15+ times during NCAA National Champions remark Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump dance during UFC 327? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during National Agriculture Day events? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -102%
Will Trump or Melania say "Iran" at Chicago Opening Night? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during National Agriculture Day events? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during healthcare event? Jun 15 $0 $0 -200%
Will Trump say "Dairy" during National Agriculture Day events? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during executive orde Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Job" 15+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders say "ICE" 4+ times at the rally on Saturday? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NCAA National Champions re Jun 15 $1 −$2 -200%
Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference? Jun 15 $0 $0 -116%
Will Trump say "Autopen" during executive order signing today? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Drake feature Morgan Wallen on ICEMAN? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 7+ times during Memphis Roundtable? Jun 15 $14 −$17 -120%
Will Trump say "Common Sense" during NCAA National Champions remarks o Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Opera" be said at the Oscars? Jun 15 $0 $0 -200%
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" or "Obliterating" or "O Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" or "Biden" during NCAA National Champions Jun 15 $1 −$3 -204%
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during Memphis Roundtable? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "Insane" during National Agriculture Day events? Jun 15 $11 −$23 -200%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" during dinner with Dutch royals? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -176%
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 150k? Jun 15 $12 −$2 -19%
Will Trump say "Dominance" or "Superiority" during Monday news confere Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during National Agriculture Day events? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump dance during National Agriculture Day event? Jun 15 $6 −$12 -200%
Will "Frankenstein" win no awards at the Oscars? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Rubio" or "Vance" during Memphis Roundtable? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during NCAA National Champions remarks Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Executive Order" during NCAA National Champions remark Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 0m
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 89¢ $6 11m
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 21¢ $6 1h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 21¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $6 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $6 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $6 1h
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 42¢ $1 2h
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? BUY No 27¢ $2 2h
Will Trump's remarks not air? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will anyone say "Idiot" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 2h
Will anyone say "Idiot" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 2h
Will anyone say "Evil" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY No 14¢ $1 2h
Will anyone say "Evil" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY No 14¢ $1 2h
Will anyone say "Password" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 2h
Will Trump's remarks not air? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Donald Trump dance on June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 3h
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? BUY No 52¢ $7 3h
Will Zeno Debast be in Belgium's Starting 11? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Will Trump's remarks not air? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 67¢ $6 4h
Will Trump's remarks not air? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 4h
Will Trump's remarks not air? SELL No 99¢ $2 4h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 99¢ $6 4h
Will Trump's remarks not air? BUY No 94¢ $6 4h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 60¢ $4 4h
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 96¢ $6 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Weather Delay? SELL No 10¢ $0 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Weather Delay? SELL No 9¢ $4 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,373.63 · official $1,371.16 (match) · 3500 history records