Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:02:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A7 0xa769…b3ad crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$165 (+22%) realized +$165 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%20W / 8L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +19.5% +8.2% 71% 71% +4.4%
≤30d 28 +19.5% +8.2% 71% 71% +4.4%
≤90d 28 +19.5% +8.2% 71% 71% +4.4%
all 28 +19.5% +8.2% 71% 71% +4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.2% 71% +4.4%
10% ← realistic here -2.2% 68% -5.6%
15% -11.6% 64% -14.7%
20% -20.3% 46% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$23 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses20 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$19 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$8 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $45 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.17 · official $41.17 (match) · 50 history records