Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:20:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa767…f938 sports 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$106 (-12%) realized −$107 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%59W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$86
14 days−$127
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$69
other 18% −$41
politics 3% +$2
tech 3% −$18
weather 2% +$2
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -12.5% -20.8% 43% 42% -24.5%
≤30d 128 -13.6% -21.8% 46% 44% -24.5%
≤90d 128 -13.6% -21.8% 46% 44% -24.5%
all 128 -13.6% -21.8% 46% 44% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 44% -24.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 43% -31.7%
15% -36.1% 38% -38.3%
20% -42.4% 27% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses59 / 69
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions13
Markets (closed)128 / 144
History coverage9d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 56¢ 90¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+60%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 50¢ 66¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 72¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 69¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 24¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 59¢ 61¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 28¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 69¢ 14¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +84%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +88%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$6 +112%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$7 +132%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$5 -96%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$4 +84%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Taylor Hall win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +81%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$7 +132%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$5 -49%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $11 −$10 -97%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$5 +103%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +107%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $16 −$10 -65%
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -10%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the Jun 13 $4 $0 -9%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 13 $21 −$10 -50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$6 +107%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +15%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the e Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the e Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the e Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the e Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 12 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$4 +81%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 21m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $5 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 45¢ $5 12h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 45¢ $10 12h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 13h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $5 13h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $5 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 13h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $5 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 17h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $5 18h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $5 20h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 22h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belg BUY 24¢ $5 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR I BUY $5 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will Taylor Hall win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 2d
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 72¢ $5 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.67 · official $70.67 (match) · 275 history records