Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

A7 0xa766…5a59 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$117 (-12%) realized −$82 · open −$35

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR59%break-even

Win rate59%13W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$33per market

Trades / day4.8pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit70%portable

Net worth$322now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +59%

net ROI/market (all)-12.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-3.7%	-12.9%	59%	59%	-18.1%
≤30d	22	-3.7%	-12.9%	59%	59%	-18.1%
≤90d	22	-3.7%	-12.9%	59%	59%	-18.1%
all	22	-3.7%	-12.9%	59%	59%	-18.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-12.9%	59%	-18.1%
10%	-21.2%	50%	-25.9%
15%	-28.8%	45%	-33.1%
20%	-35.8%	14%	-39.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -37% → late +29% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$24 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.73 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$322

Realized−$82

Unrealized−$35

Win rate (resolved)59%

Wins / losses13 / 9

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions8

Markets (closed)22 / 30

History coverage10d

Avg bet$33

Trades / day4.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	8¢	$164	$132	−$31 (-19%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$64	$63	−$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	71¢	70¢	$60	$60	−$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	41¢	40¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-4%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+12%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-7%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-10%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	Jun 17	$71	+$35	+49%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$40	+$16	+40%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5	Jun 17	$25	−$25	-98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	Jun 17	$20	+$5	+24%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$31	+$30	+97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$26	+$5	+19%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$79	−$78	-99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$10	+$9	+91%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$30	+$13	+43%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 16	$11	−$11	-98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$3	+$8	+256%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$2	+$1	+50%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 16	$20	−$20	-99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 16	$10	+$5	+48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$20	+$8	+38%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$6	−$6	-99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$10	+$5	+48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$136	+$21	+15%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	41¢	$31	55m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$61	57m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	100¢	$59	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	50¢	$30	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	53¢	$47	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	84¢	$57	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5	BUY Over	44¢	$25	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	99¢	$25	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	79¢	$20	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	45¢	$41	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	100¢	$61	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	50¢	$31	2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	81¢	$31	2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	67¢	$26	2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$40	3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$28	9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	99¢	$19	16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$50	16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$43	17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	51¢	$10	17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	69¢	$30	17h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$11	25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$11	25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	27¢	$3	26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$3	26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	66¢	$2	26h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	71¢	$20	27h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$10	27h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$10	29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	55¢	$6	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.33 · official $322.33 (match) · 63 history records