Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:59:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A7
0xa761…ba1f
world · 48 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$135 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$136 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 48
History coverage21d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day165.9
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 1 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$81
14 days−$81
30 days+$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Yes 40¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+150%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-24%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? No 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at least $250? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intelligence? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
La Bisbal: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Rebecca Sramkova Oksana Selekhmeteva 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? No 75¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Jun 14 $53 −$55 -104%
La Bisbal: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Rebecca Sramkova Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 13 $2 $0 -13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -24%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $4 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $8 $0 -2%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 13 $8 $0 -3%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -8%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +35%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $63 −$1 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $7 −$2 -27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Jun 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in June? Jun 12 $2 $0 -17%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 12 $6 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 -7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $26 +$3 +12%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $3 +$2 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -56%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J Jun 12 $3 $0 -15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $49 $0 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -25%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1 $0 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +153%
Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intel Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? May 25 $106 +$65 +61%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $6,512 +$4 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May? May 25 $14 +$95 +671%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 25 $93 +$52 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 94% +$5
other 2% +$135
finance 2% +$63
tech 1% −$6
sports 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL No 14¢ $1 7h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 15¢ $1 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 7h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 78¢ $4 10h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 77¢ $4 10h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 80¢ $8 11h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 81¢ $8 11h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 50¢ $2 12h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 50¢ $3 12h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 50¢ $5 12h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 51¢ $5 12h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 13h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 13h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $3 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $4 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 25h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 69¢ $3 25h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 25h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 69¢ $3 25h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 65¢ $3 25h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? SELL No 77¢ $4 25h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? SELL No 62¢ $3 25h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in June? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 25h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 25h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $6 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -17.0% -24.9% 27% 13% -28.0%
≤30d 49 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 18% -7.8%
≤90d 49 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 18% -7.8%
all 49 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 18% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover165.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 18% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 16% -16.6%
15% -25.7% 12% -24.7%
20% -33.0% 10% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.52 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records