Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:27:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa761…6281 other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-7%) realized −$4 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$19
sports 13% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)3 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.24 · official $231.24 · 14 history records