trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 95¢ | 94¢ | $30 | $30 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 51¢ | 50¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on October 21? | Down | 63¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | $16 | $0 | −$16 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10AM ET | Up | 39¢ | 0¢ | $8 | $0 | −$8 (-100%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $85 | $0 | −$85 (-100%) |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 9AM ET | Down | 42¢ | 0¢ | $147 | $0 | −$147 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on March 21? | Jun 14 | $138 | +$62 | +45% |
| XRP Up or Down - January 18, 1PM ET | Mar 20 | $150 | +$150 | +100% |
| Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on January 15? | Jan 18 | $106 | +$94 | +89% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 12PM ET | Nov 26 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 | Nov 14 | $37 | +$23 | +61% |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 | Nov 14 | $202 | −$160 | -79% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12PM ET | Nov 14 | $73 | +$7 | +10% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11AM ET | Nov 13 | $28 | +$2 | +6% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 06 | $18 | +$2 | +9% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 04 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 10AM ET | Nov 04 | $11 | +$9 | +89% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10AM ET | Nov 02 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 | Oct 25 | $81 | +$89 | +111% |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 | Oct 24 | $85 | −$85 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11AM ET | Oct 24 | $4 | +$1 | +25% |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 | Oct 23 | $1 | $0 | +14% |
| Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on October 21? | Oct 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5AM ET | Oct 21 | $232 | +$2 | +1% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 12PM ET | Oct 19 | $54 | +$146 | +270% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 9AM ET | Oct 17 | $147 | −$147 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +44.9% | +31.1% | 100% | 100% | +31.1% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +44.9% | +31.1% | 100% | 100% | +31.1% |
| ≤90d | 2 | +72.5% | +56.0% | 100% | 100% | +57.1% |
| all | 20 | +11.5% | +0.9% | 65% | 45% | +15.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +0.9% | 45% | +15.1% |
| 10% | -8.8% | 40% | +4.1% |
| 15% | -17.6% | 35% | -6.0% |
| 20% | -25.7% | 30% | -15.2% |