Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa760…2f56 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-4%) realized +$122 · open −$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day37.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$178
world 17% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +12.4% +1.7% 64% 55% -18.0%
≤30d 11 +12.4% +1.7% 64% 55% -18.0%
≤90d 11 +12.4% +1.7% 64% 55% -18.0%
all 11 +12.4% +1.7% 64% 55% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.7% 55% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -8.1% 27% -25.9%
15% -16.9% 9% -33.1%
20% -25.1% 9% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$34 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$122
Unrealized−$150
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)11 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day37.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$52 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$12 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $137 −$31 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $32 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $32 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $7 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.39 · official $0.39 (match) · 45 history records