Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:26:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
A7 0xa75a…0b81 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL −$97 (-10%) realized −$97 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%22W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$181
7 days+$23
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$151
other 38% −$114
crypto 6% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +32.5% +19.9% 54% 46% -6.9%
≤30d 39 +48.5% +34.4% 56% 49% -5.7%
≤90d 39 +48.5% +34.4% 56% 49% -5.7%
all 39 +48.5% +34.4% 56% 49% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.4% 49% -5.7%
10% +21.5% 44% -14.7%
15% +9.8% 41% -22.9%
20% -1.0% 33% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late +58% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses22 / 17
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 53
History coverage7d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $20 +$7 +36%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $10 +$11 +109%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $240 +$18 +8%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) AND Spread: C Jun 28 $80 +$65 +81%
Spread: England (-1.5) AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Will A Jun 28 $8 +$29 +366%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $17 −$17 -99%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $10 +$48 +470%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $22 +$7 +32%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $24 +$20 +84%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1 $0 -18%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $2 $0 -13%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Jun 27 $3 +$7 +266%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $1 $0 +46%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score AND Will Australia win Jun 26 $7 +$7 +106%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin above 60,800 on June 24, 9PM ET? Jun 25 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? Jun 25 $51 −$3 -6%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $14 +$6 +39%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 24 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$4 +13%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $16 +$2 +13%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $2 +$10 +509%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -66%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -51%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 24 $3 −$2 -77%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -75%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -83%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $15 +$10 +64%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs Jun 23 $3 +$6 +180%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $14 +$1 +10%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1 +$6 +549%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $4 +$6 +139%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 2 BUY 41¢ $17 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $27 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY 32¢ $4 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Japan 73¢ $20 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30? BUY $2 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 12h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 12h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 94¢ $258 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 87¢ $240 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 25h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY 48¢ $10 37h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) AND Spread: C SELL 99¢ $145 40h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Will A SELL 99¢ $37 40h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $17 42h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 26¢ $5 42h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a dra BUY 32¢ $10 42h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 100¢ $58 42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 100¢ $29 42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 75¢ $22 44h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) SELL 98¢ $44 45h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) AND Spread: C BUY 54¢ $80 47h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 53¢ $24 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Will A BUY 21¢ $8 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Wi BUY 18¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.24 · official $29.37 · 91 history records