Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:54:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A7 0xa756…d1fd other 49 markets active 9h ago coverage 9d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$14 (+9%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%22W / 16L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$24
sports 27% +$9
world 10% +$1
crypto 3% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +82.2% +64.8% 68% 68% +43.7%
≤30d 38 +52.4% +37.9% 58% 58% +30.9%
≤90d 38 +52.4% +37.9% 58% 58% +30.9%
all 38 +52.4% +37.9% 58% 58% +30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.9% 58% +30.9%
10% +24.7% 47% +18.4%
15% +12.6% 42% +7.0%
20% +1.6% 37% -3.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +78% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses22 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 49
History coverage9d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 46¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1 $0 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 +$2 +119%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1 $0 -4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $3 $0 +11%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1 +$6 +539%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1 $0 +17%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $1 +$2 +188%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $3 +$1 +36%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $5 +$3 +57%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $2 +$12 +596%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $1 +$1 +146%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $5 +$10 +203%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Jun 20 $5 +$11 +206%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +474%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +67%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$2 +197%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 2¢ $4 8h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AN BUY 6¢ $12 27h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 27h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 100¢ $3 27h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 38¢ $7 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 12¢ $8 27h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 40h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 40h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $3 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 63¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND BUY 3¢ $5 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY 27¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 25¢ $26 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $1 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 39¢ $9 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 32¢ $5 7d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Her BUY 10¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.93 · official $8.15 · 74 history records