Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:20:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa756…a1f9 politics 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%6W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$3
sports 20% −$2
other 9% −$1
culture 6% $0
crypto 6% −$2
world 2% $0
economics 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 3 +0.6% -9.0% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 25% 0% -9.2%
all 65 -4.6% -13.7% 9% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -22.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses6 / 59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage268d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $101 +$2 +2%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $203 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $101 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $98 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 07 $101 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 11 $201 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 01 $2 $0 -10%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $100 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 29 $103 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 27 $102 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $1 $0 -17%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 25 $206 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 23 $101 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 21 $207 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 15? Jan 16 $98 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 13 $102 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 11? Jan 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 11 $103 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 09 $100 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 06 $207 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 03 $104 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 01 $208 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $104 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $104 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $102 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 22 $100 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $101 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 15 $105 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 13 $74 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 08 $104 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 06 $105 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 04 $101 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 02 $1 $0 -25%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 02 $106 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 27 $210 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 25 $104 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 24 $106 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $103 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $1 $0 -10%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 19 $103 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 15 $2 $0 -20%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 12 $103 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $103 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $34 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $62 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $97 10d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $97 11d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $101 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $101 22d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $97 34d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $97 99d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $100 101d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 119d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 125d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 136d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 136d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $100 136d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $100 137d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 137d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 138d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $103 138d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $103 140d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $102 140d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 141d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 142d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $98 142d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $98 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.64 · official $0.64 (match) · 348 history records