Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:59:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa755…21ed politics 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate34%12W / 23L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$1
world 27% +$8
other 26% −$1
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 +3.7% -6.2% 57% 14% -6.8%
≤90d 8 +4.7% -5.3% 62% 25% -6.8%
all 35 +0.2% -9.4% 34% 6% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 6% -8.9%
10% -18.0% 3% -17.6%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.2% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage322d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $50 −$4 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $33 +$2 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $45 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $33 +$8 +25%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $42 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $2 $0 +12%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 09 $7 $0 +4%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 15 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Aug 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or UAE? Aug 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? Aug 12 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $61 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 11 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Brian Campbell be the first round leader at the 2025 FedEx St. Ju Aug 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on August 8? Aug 08 $12 $0 -1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? Aug 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 07 $9 $0 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 06 $6 $0 +3%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 06 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 69°F or below on August 6? Aug 06 $0 $0 -33%
2025 July hottest on record? Aug 06 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 93¢ $46 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $46 3h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 14h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $46 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $44 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $10 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $22 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $33 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $9 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $6 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $33 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 34¢ $20 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 30d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 30d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 30d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $23 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $13 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $26 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $40 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.43 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records