Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:14:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A7
0xa754…d8cf
weather · 65 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$2,035 -27%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,214 · open +$167
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,561
Realized−$2,214
Unrealized+$167
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses28 / 35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage114d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 2 History 63 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $703 $964 +$261 (+37%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $691 $597 −$94 (-14%)
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? No 0¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 19 $63 −$63 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 10 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Iran strike UAE again in March? Apr 09 $25 −$25 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $135 −$135 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on April 8? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on April 8? Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 7? Apr 07 $53 −$28 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 7? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or higher on April 7? Apr 07 $110 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 6? Apr 07 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 6? Apr 07 $52 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 6? Apr 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 30? Mar 31 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on March 30? Mar 30 $26 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 29? Mar 30 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on March 29? Mar 29 $21 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 24? Mar 24 $25 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 23? Mar 24 $19 +$6 +34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 23? Mar 23 $16 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 23? Mar 23 $411 −$319 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 22? Mar 23 $327 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 22? Mar 22 $298 +$29 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 21? Mar 22 $294 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 21? Mar 21 $276 +$17 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 20? Mar 21 $241 +$36 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 20? Mar 20 $234 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 20? Mar 20 $181 +$53 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 7? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 7? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on Ma Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 7? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C or higher on March 15? Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21? Mar 20 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 19? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 7? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 19? Mar 20 $41 +$19 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 19? Mar 20 $93 +$29 +31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 19? Mar 19 $91 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on March 18? Mar 19 $70 +$28 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on March 18? Mar 18 $7 −$4 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on March 18? Mar 18 $80 −$23 -28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 17? Mar 17 $119 −$30 -25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 16? Mar 17 $105 +$14 +13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 15? Mar 15 $97 −$91 -93%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 14? Mar 15 $74 +$23 +31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 12? Mar 13 $28 +$12 +42%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 12? Mar 12 $25 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 11? Mar 11 $22 +$3 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 50% −$396
other 35% −$538
world 15% −$1,108
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $23 8d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $27 8d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $93 14d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $99 14d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $33 14d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $34 14d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 14d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $550 14d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $498 15d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 16d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $33 23d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $36 23d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $96 34d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $114 34d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 39d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $273 39d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $515 39d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 47d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 49d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 51d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 51d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $21 55d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $29 56d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 0¢ $28 65d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 0¢ $20 65d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 0¢ $20 66d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 0¢ $5 66d
Will Iran strike UAE again in March? BUY No 0¢ $5 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 45 -40.6% -46.2% 44% 24% -27.1%
all 63 -33.8% -40.1% 44% 29% -45.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.1% 29% -45.0%
10% -45.8% 16% -50.3%
15% -51.1% 10% -55.1%
20% -55.9% 3% -59.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,561.13 · official $1,561.13 (match) · 239 history records