Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:11:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa74e…e2af crypto 162 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate76%123W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day62.4pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$10
other 12% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 +0.6% -9.0% 76% 55% -10.9%
≤30d 162 +0.6% -9.0% 76% 55% -10.9%
≤90d 162 +0.6% -9.0% 76% 55% -10.9%
all 162 +0.6% -9.0% 76% 55% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 55% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 23% -19.4%
15% -25.7% 10% -27.2%
20% -32.9% 6% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses123 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)162 / 162
History coverage6d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day62.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 162 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 28m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $2 29m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 48m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $2 48m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 49m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 49m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 440 history records