Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:24:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A7
0xa74d…9884
crypto · 1656 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2,189 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,188 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized+$2,188
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses805 / 584
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1389 / 1656
History coverage16d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day176.8
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1389 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,796
7 days−$2,011
14 days+$1,982
30 days+$2,188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 56¢ 70¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $129 $0 −$129 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$5,220
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 707 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 50% -37.3%
≤30d 1389 +11.8% +1.2% 58% 57% -0.3%
≤90d 1389 +11.8% +1.2% 58% 57% -0.3%
all 1389 +11.8% +1.2% 58% 57% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover176.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.2% 57% -0.3%
10% ← realistic here -8.5% 54% -9.8%
15% -17.3% 51% -18.5%
20% -25.4% 48% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $3.06 (match) · 3500 history records