Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:54:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa749…02b2 other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 82% −$16
other 12% +$4
sports 3% +$9
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 +4.7% -5.3% 25% 6% -8.4%
≤90d 32 +8.9% -1.4% 28% 9% -8.2%
all 44 +6.7% -3.5% 27% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 9% -9.6%
10% -12.7% 7% -18.2%
15% -21.1% 7% -26.1%
20% -28.9% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage603d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $6 +$4 +76%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $21 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $69 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $4 +$6 +152%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $9 +$5 +60%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $107 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $53 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 06 $16 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of February? Mar 05 $15 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 16 $12 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 11 $51 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $282 −$2 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $1,663 −$5 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $940 −$5 -1%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 24 $1,170 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 15h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 17h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 39h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 40h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $12 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 3d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $47 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 10d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 10d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 56¢ $6 11d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $12 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $12 14d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 17d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $11 20d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 20d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 21d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 21d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 24d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 26d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.45 · official $43.45 (match) · 261 history records