trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 33% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -11.2% | -19.7% | 20% | 0% | -14.4% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -11.2% | -19.7% | 20% | 0% | -14.4% |
| all | 26 | -10.3% | -18.8% | 46% | 0% | -12.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.8% | 0% | -12.9% |
| 10% | -26.6% | 0% | -21.3% |
| 15% | -33.7% | 0% | -28.9% |
| 20% | -40.2% | 0% | -35.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 51¢ | 52¢ | $30 | $30 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 19 | $29 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 18 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 17 | $29 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 27 | $37 | $0 | -1% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 26 | $15 | −$3 | -21% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 26 | $25 | +$1 | +3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 25 | $8 | −$1 | -9% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 24 | $42 | −$6 | -14% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 24 | $9 | −$3 | -32% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 24 | $1 | $0 | -40% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? | Dec 15 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Meta buy TikTok? | Jun 26 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 30 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 05 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? | Apr 17 | $12 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 31 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? | Mar 29 | $2 | −$1 | -63% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? | Mar 28 | $1 | $0 | -10% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? | Mar 27 | $14 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? | Mar 24 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 24 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? | Mar 21 | $15 | $0 | +2% |
| Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? | Mar 19 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? | Mar 17 | $14 | $0 | +2% |