Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:09:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A7 0xa742…3d02 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$419 (-9%) realized −$419 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$3
tech 28% −$11
culture 28% +$3
sports 7% −$226
finance 3% −$165
crypto 1% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +8.4% -1.9% 100% 0% -1.6%
≤30d 6 +9.1% -1.3% 100% 17% -1.2%
≤90d 6 +9.1% -1.3% 100% 17% -1.2%
all 18 -23.9% -31.2% 50% 6% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 6% -17.5%
10% -37.8% 0% -25.4%
15% -43.8% 0% -32.6%
20% -49.3% 0% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$72 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$419
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage149d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Under 94¢ 94¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 16 $11 +$1 +7%
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 16 $18 +$2 +10%
XRP Up or Down on May 18? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +11%
Spread: Fredrikstad FK (-1.5) Jun 04 $16 +$2 +10%
Will Deportivo Pereira win on 2026-04-18? May 18 $9 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 18 $17 +$2 +10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Metz end in a draw? Feb 22 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Kris Dunn: Assists O/U 5.5 Feb 21 $103 −$103 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 20? Feb 21 $165 −$165 -100%
LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Feb 21 $131 −$131 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on February 20 Feb 21 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the Eastern Conference? Feb 19 $1,423 +$1 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Feb 19 $1,339 −$11 -1%
Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 19 $1,329 +$3 +0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the Eastern Conference? Feb 19 $77 $0 +0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the Eastern Conference? Feb 19 $46 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $20 1h
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) BUY T1 91¢ $18 5d
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 93¢ $11 12d
Spread: Fredrikstad FK (-1.5) BUY Sandefjord Fotball 91¢ $16 22d
XRP Up or Down on May 18? BUY Down 90¢ $10 29d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group BUY Natus Vincere 91¢ $17 36d
Will Deportivo Pereira win on 2026-04-18? BUY No 93¢ $9 58d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Metz end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $21 115d
Kris Dunn: Assists O/U 5.5 BUY No 51¢ $103 115d
LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Disguised 42¢ $41 115d
LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Disguised 42¢ $89 115d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 20? BUY Up 62¢ $165 116d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 116d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $13 116d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $28 116d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the Eastern Conference? SELL No 96¢ $1,424 116d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 96¢ $1,000 116d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 96¢ $423 116d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1,328 116d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $799 116d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $154 116d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $386 116d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 117d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 117d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 117d
Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 98¢ $1,332 117d
Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $1,178 117d
Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $151 117d
Will the Florida Panthers win the Eastern Conference? SELL Yes $3 117d
Will the Florida Panthers win the Eastern Conference? SELL Yes $73 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.64 · official $19.64 (match) · 49 history records