Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A7 0xa73a…b6a5 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$6,611 (+79%) realized +$4,963 · open +$1,648
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +85% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +67% what you keep after slip
Net edge+67%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$838per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$6,964now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 91% +$1,655
other 7% −$345
sports 2% +$378
crypto 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+67.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +62.4% +46.9% 20% 20% -18.5%
≤30d 6 +84.8% +67.2% 33% 33% -7.6%
≤90d 6 +84.8% +67.2% 33% 33% -7.6%
all 6 +84.8% +67.2% 33% 33% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +67.2% 33% -7.6%
10% +51.2% 33% -16.4%
15% +36.6% 33% -24.5%
20% +23.2% 33% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +85% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$92 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$6,964
Realized+$4,963
Unrealized+$1,648
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage19d
Avg bet$838
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4,995 $6,650 +$1,655 (+33%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $153 $147 −$5 (-4%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 36¢ 36¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $71 $68 −$3 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $46 +$326 +712%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $319 −$310 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $26 +$50 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $157 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 2h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 36¢ $99 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $73 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $28 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $46 2h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $442 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $148 3d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $148 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 3d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $59 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $111 3d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $109 3d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $242 16d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $200 16d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $303 16d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $135 17d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $26 17d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $957 17d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 18d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 18d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 3¢ $66 18d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 3¢ $30 18d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $1,868 18d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 18d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,963.61 · official $6,963.61 (match) · 69 history records