Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:57:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A7 0xa738…424a crypto 423 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$171 (+9%) realized +$163 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%162W / 234L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$20
14 days−$19
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$57
world 25% +$149
other 10% +$78
finance 3% −$9
politics 1% −$12
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -44.6% -49.8% 25% 25% -43.5%
≤30d 43 -5.6% -14.6% 19% 19% -51.5%
≤90d 178 -6.5% -15.4% 40% 38% -12.5%
all 396 -3.5% -12.7% 41% 38% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 38% -14.0%
10% -21.1% 35% -22.2%
15% -28.7% 30% -29.8%
20% -35.7% 26% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$163
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses162 / 234
Open positions27
Markets (closed)396 / 423
History coverage135d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 396 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Yes 46¢ 98¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+114%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 34¢ 98¢ $7 $20 +$13 (+190%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 45¢ 56¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 30¢ 12¢ $16 $6 −$10 (-62%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $27 $4 −$23 (-83%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 45¢ 56¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 35¢ 42¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+21%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +68%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $4 +$21 +528%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $10 +$18 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 +$198 +9890%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 01 $54 −$9 -17%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 26h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 26h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 26h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 27h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 27h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 27h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 27h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 27h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 27h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 27h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.81 · official $139.81 (match) · 1166 history records