Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa738…a520 sports 382 markets active 5h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$287 (-7%) realized −$283 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate60%219W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$52
14 days+$58
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$305
sports 26% −$17
other 7% −$33
weather 5% +$41
politics 2% +$10
world 2% +$3
finance 1% −$12
tech 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +24.7% +12.8% 88% 58% +14.0%
≤30d 80 +16.9% +5.8% 78% 54% +5.0%
≤90d 235 +2.8% -6.9% 63% 48% -5.0%
all 366 -2.2% -11.5% 60% 41% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 41% -16.0%
10% -19.9% 32% -24.0%
15% -27.7% 27% -31.4%
20% -34.8% 21% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$283
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses219 / 147
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions16
Markets (closed)366 / 382
History coverage137d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 366 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 32¢ 79¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+147%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok? No 95¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Walmart acquire TikTok? No 96¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will EUR/USD hit 1.14 (Low) in 2026? Yes 85¢ 71¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 40¢ 30¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 8¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-80%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$12 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Elon post "Always" on X this week? Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +248%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $5 +$1 +27%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$12 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$4 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +28%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +21%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $20 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 68¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 21h
Will Elon post "Always" on X this week? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 44h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 47h
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 61¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 4d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL Yes 92¢ $6 4d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL Yes 92¢ $0 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.48 · official $70.53 (match) · 1373 history records