Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:04:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa738…07c1 crypto 654 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (290 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,783 (-14%) realized −$3,783 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate54%601W / 506L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day289.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$483
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (290 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-47.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 505 -93.9% -94.4% 6% 0% -92.2%
≤30d 1107 -42.3% -47.8% 54% 4% -33.8%
≤90d 1107 -42.3% -47.8% 54% 4% -33.8%
all 1107 -42.3% -47.8% 54% 4% -33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover289.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.8% 4% -33.8%
10% ← realistic here -52.8% 2% -40.2%
15% -57.4% 0% -45.9%
20% -61.5% 0% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -85% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$22 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,783
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses601 / 506
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1107 / 654
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$42
Trades / day289.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1107 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 19m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 21m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 22m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records