Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:35:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa737…44d0 other 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate51%32W / 31L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$1
other 29% +$5
politics 17% +$9
sports 4% +$1
tech 4% −$4
crypto 3% $0
weather 3% −$1
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 0% -9.8%
all 63 -1.0% -10.5% 51% 8% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 8% -8.5%
10% -19.0% 3% -17.2%
15% -26.8% 3% -25.2%
20% -34.0% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses32 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage473d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 67¢ $28 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $30 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $30 −$2 -5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $31 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 11 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Dec 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $15 −$1 -4%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $9 $0 -2%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 25 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 22 $7 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Jun 22 $7 $0 -3%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jun 21 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Jun 20 $7 $0 +2%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 05 $15 +$7 +49%
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or higher on May May 30 $6 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? May 29 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30? May 28 $5 $0 +3%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 27 $8 $0 +4%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 25 $4 $0 +8%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 24 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $19 $0 +3%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $6 $0 +5%
Will Jalen Brunson Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $13 $0 +3%
Will Israel be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 11 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $2 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $28 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 53¢ $12 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $12 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $28 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $28 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $24 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $4 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $4 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $32 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $32 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $30 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $6 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $24 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $21 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $9 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $2 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $27 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $30 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $3 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 13d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 13d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 13d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 13d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.47 · official $27.47 (match) · 239 history records