Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:23:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa734…65db crypto 491 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%231W / 254L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$389
30 days−$599
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$453
sports 41% −$233
other 10% −$557
world 0% +$1
finance 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 50% -16.5%
≤30d 108 -21.6% -29.1% 37% 34% -35.8%
≤90d 255 -10.1% -18.6% 45% 42% -15.8%
all 485 -7.3% -16.1% 48% 45% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 45% -11.5%
10% -24.1% 39% -20.0%
15% -31.5% 32% -27.7%
20% -38.2% 24% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$21 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses231 / 254
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions4
Markets (closed)485 / 491
History coverage135d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 485 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $27 +$4 +16%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $10 −$1 -12%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire leading at halfti Jun 25 $9 +$9 +99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 25 $23 −$21 -89%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $10 +$13 +126%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 −$2 -14%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $49 −$48 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $59 −$58 -99%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 $0 -5%
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $10 $0 -5%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $11 $0 -2%
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -7%
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 −$7 -34%
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 −$2 -11%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$9 -22%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 14 $10 +$3 +30%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 14 $20 $0 -2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $20 $0 -1%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $20 $0 -1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $4 +$2 +53%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -7%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$8 -41%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$3 +49%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$22 +107%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$13 -63%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $30 +$18 +58%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $34 +$10 +31%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Zizou Bergs 50¢ $32 14m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 42¢ $27 1h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 33¢ $9 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $19 16h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 29¢ $10 16h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 14¢ $13 16h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 88¢ $23 18h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire leading at halfti BUY 50¢ $9 20h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 20h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 57¢ $10 20h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 44¢ $13 20h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 44¢ $10 20h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 57¢ $15 20h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 36¢ $10 20h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 68¢ $20 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-1 BUY $2 8d
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL No 12¢ $2 8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $18 8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 52¢ $13 8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $15 8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $15 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Sprea BUY 27¢ $55 11d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $49 11d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $51 11d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $59 11d
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 34¢ $6 11d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 64¢ $10 11d
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 37¢ $9 11d
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 67¢ $10 11d
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 65¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.13 · official $86.13 (match) · 1240 history records