Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:38:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa731…c990 crypto 175 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (166 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$43,883 (+125%) realized +$43,902 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%96W / 117L
Whale WR18%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day165.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$410
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (166 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -39.3% -45.1% 35% 32% -33.4%
≤30d 213 -20.6% -28.2% 45% 41% -20.0%
≤90d 213 -20.6% -28.2% 45% 41% -20.0%
all 213 -20.6% -28.2% 45% 41% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover165.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.2% 41% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -35.1% 32% -27.7%
15% -41.3% 16% -34.6%
20% -47.1% 12% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 18% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
19.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$89 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized+$43,902
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses96 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)18%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)213 / 175
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$201
Trades / day165.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 70¢ 94¢ $147 $196 +$49 (+33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 16¢ 6¢ $31 $13 −$19 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 29 $189 −$189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 29 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $164 −$164 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $164 −$164 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 29 $147 −$147 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 29 $181 −$181 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 29 $146 −$146 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $145 −$145 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 29 $164 −$164 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 29 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $219 −$219 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $194 −$194 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 29 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 29 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 29 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 29 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $82 +$106 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $179 −$40 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $206 +$166 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $55 +$48 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 29 $47 +$35 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $335 +$119 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $724 −$330 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $441 +$113 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 29 $390 −$390 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $34 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $35 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $28 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $36 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $19 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $17 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $23 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $16 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.90 · official $208.39 (match) · 3500 history records