Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:16:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa731…37e1 crypto 573 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (101 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,624 (-14%) realized −$3,624 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate34%313W / 597L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day100.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,260
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (101 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-46.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 378 -85.5% -86.9% 5% 4% -79.2%
≤30d 804 -44.9% -50.1% 32% 28% -30.3%
≤90d 910 -41.3% -46.9% 34% 28% -28.3%
all 910 -41.3% -46.9% 34% 28% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.9% 28% -28.3%
10% ← realistic here -51.9% 24% -35.1%
15% -56.6% 19% -41.4%
20% -60.8% 14% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$22 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,624
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses313 / 597
Open positions0
Markets (closed)910 / 573
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$45
Trades / day100.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 910 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$14 +310%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$8 -154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $34 −$21 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$21 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$4 -577%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Sharks vs. Canadiens Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5PM ET Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$9 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$15 -155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$6 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $34 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $58 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $85 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records