Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:50:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A7 0xa730…fe3d crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%27W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 27 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 27 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 0% -8.3%
all 27 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 0% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 0% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 0% -17.0%
15% -24.4% 0% -25.1%
20% -31.8% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses27 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 97¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $126 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $123 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $121 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $119 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $118 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $116 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $113 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $112 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $110 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $109 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $107 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $126 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $119 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $118 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $113 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $112 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $110 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $109 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $107 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.38 · official $1.40 (match) · 55 history records