Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa730…dd50 crypto 395 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (232 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,554 (+5%) realized +$1,589 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%169W / 300L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day231.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$263now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$115
other 1% −$18
sports 1% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (232 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 -51.2% -55.9% 23% 23% -40.7%
≤30d 469 -17.3% -25.2% 36% 36% -17.7%
≤90d 469 -17.3% -25.2% 36% 36% -17.7%
all 469 -17.3% -25.2% 36% 36% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover231.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.2% 36% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 36% -25.5%
15% -38.9% 35% -32.7%
20% -44.9% 35% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$62 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$263
Realized+$1,589
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses169 / 300
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)469 / 395
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$78
Trades / day231.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 469 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Up 50¢ 54¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Up 49¢ 50¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 50¢ 56¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 281 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 16 $396 −$338 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Nuggets vs. Pistons Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $165 −$165 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 3AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $55 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $44 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $48 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $49 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $27 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $191 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $53 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $77 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $60 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $98 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $123 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $73 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $198 18m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $262.77 · official $257.78 · 3500 history records