Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:14:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa72d…1dae sports 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$40 (+4%) realized +$224 · open −$184
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$153
other 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +6.4% -3.7% 58% 58% -3.5%
≤30d 12 +6.4% -3.7% 58% 58% -3.5%
≤90d 12 +6.4% -3.7% 58% 58% -3.5%
all 12 +6.4% -3.7% 58% 58% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.7% 58% -3.5%
10% ← realistic here -12.9% 50% -12.7%
15% -21.3% 33% -21.1%
20% -29.0% 17% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$19 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized+$224
Unrealized−$184
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 29¢ 28¢ $116 $114 −$2 (-2%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 48¢ $102 $97 −$5 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 36¢ 0¢ $179 $2 −$176 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $32 −$31 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -5%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$7 +14%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 +$21 +42%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $23 +$23 +101%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $47 +$23 +50%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $55 +$16 +29%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $44 −$4 -10%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $56 +$16 +29%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $16 +$21 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 29¢ $118 18m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 13¢ $27 27m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 38¢ $39 38m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 51¢ $4 40m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 51¢ $45 40m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 51¢ $3 40m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 64¢ $65 42m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $103 50m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 33¢ $82 52m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 33¢ $16 52m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 29¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 29¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 29¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $20 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $20 21h
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY 9z 31¢ $32 21h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $12 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $18 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $27 22h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 21¢ $1 22h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 21¢ $17 22h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 21¢ $2 22h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 21¢ $1 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 70¢ $1 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 70¢ $7 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 70¢ $2 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 70¢ $30 23h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 46¢ $45 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 70¢ $29 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.46 · official $213.50 (match) · 53 history records