Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:41:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A7 0xa72b…3b4a crypto 149 markets active 0h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-6%) realized −$54 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate47%69W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$54
crypto 41% −$3
sports 7% −$5
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +0.3% -9.2% 65% 33% -9.0%
≤30d 56 -1.2% -10.6% 64% 32% -9.4%
≤90d 62 -5.4% -14.4% 58% 29% -13.2%
all 148 -11.9% -20.3% 47% 29% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 29% -15.9%
10% -27.9% 24% -23.9%
15% -34.9% 19% -31.3%
20% -41.3% 12% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses69 / 79
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage151d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 82¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$2 +150%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $21 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$6 +539%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.98 · official $5.09 (match) · 385 history records