Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:31:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa72a…5685 sports 317 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,349 (-8%) realized −$3,401 · open +$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%132W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$530est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$568
7 days+$87
14 days−$913
30 days−$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$2,097
other 8% −$1,531
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 50% -6.1%
≤30d 162 -8.0% -16.7% 48% 46% -10.7%
≤90d 315 -15.7% -23.7% 42% 41% -17.7%
all 315 -15.7% -23.7% 42% 41% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 41% -17.7%
10% -31.0% 39% -25.6%
15% -37.7% 35% -32.8%
20% -43.8% 29% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$105 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$3,401
Unrealized+$52
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses132 / 183
Est. fees paid−$530
Open positions2
Markets (closed)315 / 317
History coverage77d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ 49¢ $102 $151 +$49 (+48%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 29¢ 31¢ $44 $47 +$3 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 127 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $178 −$176 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $307 −$303 -99%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $50 +$24 +49%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $77 −$76 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $18 +$10 +54%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $192 +$136 +71%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $187 −$184 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $39 −$38 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $250 +$198 +79%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $96 −$94 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 13 $70 +$94 +134%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $130 +$74 +57%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $40 −$39 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $226 +$211 +93%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $160 +$70 +44%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 11 $202 −$2 -1%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $122 +$105 +86%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $16 +$11 +67%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 10 $72 +$149 +206%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs WLGaming Esports (+1.5) Jun 10 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $479 +$204 +43%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $17 −$1 -3%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 08 $15 +$7 +48%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 08 $290 −$286 -98%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 Jun 08 $208 −$206 -99%
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) Jun 08 $92 −$90 -98%
Game Handicap: VP.P (-1.5) vs BALU (+1.5) Jun 08 $151 −$148 -98%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual Jun 08 $92 −$91 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou Jun 07 $148 +$147 +100%
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs VENOM ESPOR (BO3) - TESFED League Jun 07 $63 −$63 -100%
Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) Jun 07 $589 +$190 +32%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 07 $434 +$85 +20%
Map Handicap: CHAOS (-1.5) vs WRAITH PCIFIC (+1.5) Jun 06 $24 +$28 +117%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs 1WIN (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Play Jun 06 $262 −$260 -99%
Map Handicap: G2.A (-1.5) vs against All authority (+1.5) Jun 06 $95 −$93 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Jun 06 $162 −$158 -98%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 05 $183 −$179 -98%
Game Handicap: MKF (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $287 +$170 +59%
Map Handicap: SRG (-1.5) vs Ghost Gaming GC (+1.5) Jun 03 $96 −$95 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $100 +$93 +93%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Cl Jun 03 $17 +$9 +52%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Lavked - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $1 +$1 +43%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoffs Jun 03 $172 −$169 -98%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regula Jun 03 $89 −$88 -98%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $73 +$48 +66%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? Jun 02 $54 −$53 -98%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 02 $112 +$100 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 29¢ $45 56m
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $104 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 55¢ $178 12h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $307 23h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 43¢ $2 39h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 44¢ $75 39h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY x5 Gaming 67¢ $31 39h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY x5 Gaming 67¢ $18 39h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Ares 47¢ $187 42h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 58¢ $1 44h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 58¢ $42 44h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 58¢ $3 44h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 58¢ $3 44h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 58¢ $3 44h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 58¢ $3 44h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 58¢ $137 44h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $3 46h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $15 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 74¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 85¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 85¢ $17 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $39 2d
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY Noir Verse 35¢ $96 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 55¢ $250 2d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY 9z 42¢ $70 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 65¢ $10 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 63¢ $120 3d
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 2 Winner BUY Atputies 25¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 2 Winner BUY Atputies 25¢ $11 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 20¢ $40 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.18 · official $202.81 · 726 history records