Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:41:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A7 0xa726…0dad weather 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$120 (-4%) realized −$111 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate79%22W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$88
14 days+$88
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 50% +$96
sports 49% −$206
other 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +20.8% +9.3% 100% 67% +10.3%
≤30d 7 +19.2% +7.9% 100% 57% +9.3%
≤90d 20 -2.5% -11.8% 80% 40% -14.8%
all 28 -3.1% -12.3% 79% 36% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 36% -12.9%
10% -20.7% 11% -21.2%
15% -28.4% 7% -28.8%
20% -35.4% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$48 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses22 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage141d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? No 62¢ 56¢ $150 $136 −$14 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? No 90¢ 98¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $101 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $101 +$39 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$24 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$10 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 26? May 26 $40 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on May 11? May 11 $39 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or higher on April 5? Apr 05 $200 +$19 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 5? Apr 05 $199 +$25 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 4? Apr 04 $200 −$24 -12%
Magic vs. Mavericks Apr 04 $10 −$7 -74%
Raptors vs. Grizzlies Apr 04 $200 +$1 +0%
Jazz vs. Rockets Apr 04 $201 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on April 3? Apr 03 $32 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 29? Mar 29 $51 −$41 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on March 28? Mar 29 $47 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 27? Mar 27 $40 +$7 +18%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics Mar 23 $202 −$201 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 22? Mar 22 $53 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 11? Mar 11 $10 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 11? Mar 11 $47 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 4? Mar 11 $43 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on Febr Mar 04 $13 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 14? Feb 17 $12 $0 +3%
Hawks vs. Timberwolves Feb 10 $1,002 $0 -0%
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 03 $14 −$12 -88%
Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch? Feb 01 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 56¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $52 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $51 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $51 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $112 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $52 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $50 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $50 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $140 17h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $75 17h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 82¢ $61 20h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $51 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 71¢ $51 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 72¢ $51 27h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $51 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 26? BUY No 91¢ $40 22d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on May 11? SELL No 100¢ $45 37d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on May 11? BUY No 87¢ $39 37d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or higher on April 5? SELL No 100¢ $219 72d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or higher on April 5? BUY No 91¢ $100 73d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or higher on April 5? BUY No 91¢ $100 73d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 5? SELL No 100¢ $224 73d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 5? BUY No 88¢ $199 73d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 4? SELL No 81¢ $176 73d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 4? BUY No 92¢ $200 74d
Magic vs. Mavericks SELL Mavericks $3 74d
Magic vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks $10 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.58 · official $190.07 (match) · 62 history records