trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 3 | +38.4% | +25.2% | 67% | 67% | +50.8% |
| all | 13 | -22.5% | -29.9% | 54% | 38% | +7.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -29.9% | 38% | +7.7% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -36.6% | 15% | -2.7% |
| 15% | -42.7% | 15% | -12.1% |
| 20% | -48.4% | 15% | -20.7% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? | Apr 24 | $10,495 | +$2,103 | +20% |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? | Apr 24 | $4,353 | +$8,496 | +195% |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 23 | $433 | −$421 | -97% |
| Will the Palisades fire be 50% contained by January 31? | Feb 08 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Will the Palisades fire be 50% contained by January 19? | Feb 08 | $1,000 | −$1,000 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by January 31, 2025? | Feb 08 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Israel announces ceasefire by January 16? | Feb 08 | $4,157 | −$3,785 | -91% |
| Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? | Feb 08 | $1,000 | +$163 | +16% |
| Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Jan 17 | $2,162 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will Biden finish his term? | Jan 17 | $1,119 | +$2 | +0% |
| Yoon arrested by Friday? | Jan 16 | $755 | −$755 | -100% |
| Yoon arrested by Friday? | Jan 11 | $1,000 | +$119 | +12% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 09 | $550 | +$300 | +54% |