Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:37:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A7 0xa720…74f9 crypto 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 705d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$145 (+1%) realized +$145 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate93%96W / 7L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$13
politics 42% +$131
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% +$1
other 0% −$1
finance 0% +$2
world 0% $0
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 +1.1% -8.6% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 30 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 103 -1.7% -11.1% 93% 6% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 6% -8.7%
10% -19.6% 3% -17.4%
15% -27.4% 2% -25.4%
20% -34.5% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 93% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$21 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

705d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized+$145
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses96 / 7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)103 / 106
History coverage705d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $116 $116 +$0 (+0%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 21? Jun 24 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 16 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 10? Jun 12 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $125 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $4 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 03 $7 $0 +1%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in May? May 30 $4 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 28 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 19? May 22 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 17? May 18 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 15? May 16 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 08 $131 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 04 $5 $0 +3%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April? May 04 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on April 23? Apr 27 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 15? Apr 22 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on April 11? Apr 12 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $133 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 30? Mar 31 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 20? Mar 21 $142 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $142 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 14? Mar 17 $142 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on March 7? Mar 10 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 05 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 24? Feb 25 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 20? Feb 21 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 17 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 13? Feb 14 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 1 Feb 12 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 9 Feb 10 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 7 Feb 08 $134 $0 +0%
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 2? Feb 05 $138 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $116 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $113 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $112 7d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 11d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $3 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $119 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $123 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $125 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $4 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $129 32d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $130 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $133 39d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $126 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $131 48d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 99¢ $7 51d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in May? BUY No 93¢ $4 51d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $4 51d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $119 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $120 62d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr BUY No 100¢ $3 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $127 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $125 72d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on April 11? BUY No 100¢ $123 74d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $5 75d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $6 75d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $6 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $143 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $133 83d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $134 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $129 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.77 · official $123.77 (match) · 234 history records