Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:51:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A7 0xa71e…ce92 other 154 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,726 (+1%) realized +$2,723 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate28%43W / 110L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$1,196per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$445now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$13
14 days−$28
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$82
other 36% −$235
sports 17% +$3,006
world 4% −$8
economics 2% −$5
crypto 1% +$4
culture 1% −$1
finance 1% +$19
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 32 +1.5% -8.2% 12% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 95 -5.6% -14.6% 8% 5% -9.2%
all 153 +6.1% -4.0% 28% 12% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 12% -8.2%
10% -13.2% 12% -17.0%
15% -21.6% 12% -25.0%
20% -29.3% 10% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,618) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$8 · ×10.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.32 per $1 lost it wins $4.32
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$445
Realized+$2,723
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses43 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage148d
Avg bet$1,196
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $442 $445 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $2,517 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $3,166 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $265 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $286 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $3,372 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,860 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $749 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1,889 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $654 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $3,454 −$4 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,050 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $892 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $3,230 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,475 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $837 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 06 $48 −$48 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 04 $64 +$62 +97%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,379 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $726 −$1 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $88 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 02 $381 $0 +0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $533 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,259 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $5,634 −$8 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 25 $82 +$45 +55%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $3,409 −$4 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $940 −$1 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $52 +$51 +97%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $1,856 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $2,259 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $6,636 −$7 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,120 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $1,142 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,142 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $3,592 −$4 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $2,035 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $5,263 −$6 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $1,133 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $1,142 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $328 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $328 3h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $250 24h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $251 25h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $264 26h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $265 28h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $286 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $286 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $716 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $718 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $686 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $687 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $551 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $552 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $601 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $602 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $696 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $697 8d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $748 8d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $749 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $725 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $726 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $653 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $654 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $604 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $605 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $442 10d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $945 11d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $946 11d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,157 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $444.63 · official $444.63 (match) · 544 history records