Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:45:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa716…301b crypto 271 markets active 7d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (1087 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$101 (-1%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate58%157W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day1086.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$339
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1087 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -20.9% -28.5% 43% 19% -13.2%
≤30d 271 -7.0% -15.9% 58% 22% -11.9%
≤90d 271 -7.0% -15.9% 58% 22% -11.9%
all 271 -7.0% -15.9% 58% 22% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1086.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 22% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 11% -20.4%
15% -31.3% 6% -28.1%
20% -38.0% 2% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses157 / 114
Open positions0
Markets (closed)271 / 271
History coverage2d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day1086.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 271 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $23 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $13 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $67 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $59 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $17 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $119 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $160 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $22 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $48 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $141 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $169 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $19 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $131 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $53 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $39 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $13 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $50 −$11 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $235 +$25 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $63 +$17 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $81 +$21 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.08 · official $16.08 (match) · 1961 history records