Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:10:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A7 0xa715…c386 weather 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%108W / 4L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$338now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$12
politics 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 61 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 106 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 112 -0.2% -9.7% 96% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×20.23 per $1 lost it wins $20.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$338
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses108 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage116d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $336 $338 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $338 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $338 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $336 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 16 $256 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $336 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $334 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $333 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $159 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 11 $179 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $160 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 10? Jun 10 $84 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $257 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 9? Jun 10 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $262 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 8? Jun 09 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 8? Jun 09 $194 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $325 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 71°F or below on June 6? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 6? Jun 06 $303 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 5? Jun 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 5? Jun 06 $254 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $258 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 5? Jun 05 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $153 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $183 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 3? Jun 04 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 3? Jun 03 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 03 $263 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $253 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 1? Jun 02 $272 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 31? Jun 01 $331 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 30? May 31 $329 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or below on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on May 29? May 30 $319 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $336 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $338 29h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $338 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $336 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $67 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $256 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $336 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $334 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $333 7d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $159 9d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $160 9d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $100 9d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $80 9d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $84 10d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $257 10d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $78 10d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $262 10d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $73 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $73 11d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $194 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $73 12d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $325 13d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $303 13d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 71°F or below on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $9 13d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $20 14d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $254 14d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $44 14d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $23 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.33 · official $338.33 (match) · 227 history records