Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:24:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa715…5b3b crypto 1069 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,111 (+4%) realized +$2,111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate83%954W / 194L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,495now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,431
7 days−$1,010
14 days−$1,390
30 days−$738
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,796
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 -47.5% -52.5% 46% 34% -23.0%
≤30d 302 -23.6% -30.9% 67% 49% -13.3%
≤90d 1148 -5.6% -14.6% 83% 47% -8.9%
all 1148 -5.6% -14.6% 83% 47% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 47% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 7% -17.7%
15% -30.2% 2% -25.6%
20% -37.0% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$35 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$1,495
Realized+$2,111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses954 / 194
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1148 / 1069
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1148 Trades
no open positions (192 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $166 −$166 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $77 −$77 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $58 −$58 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $57 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $70 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $59 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $75 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $9 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $55 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $67 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $62 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $58 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $84 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $56 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $62 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $23 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $58 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $65 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,494.99 · official $1,494.99 (match) · 3500 history records